A favorite mathematician joke illustrates the logic of inference and how the wrong assumptions made on the basis of few facts usually lead to widespread misinformation.

A journalist, sociologist, and mathematician are traveling by train through Scotland. The journalist spies a sheep grazing in a meadow. “Well,” he says, “it seems that the sheep in Scotland are black.”

“Actually,” replies the sociologist, “you may only assume that at least one of the sheep in Scotland are black.”

“To be more precise,” chimes in the mathematician, “we only know for certain that at least one side of one of the sheep in Scotland are black.” 

Consider this parable when evaluating the oft-repeated and misleading reports that ”no WMD were found in Iraq.” These reports are not only exaggerrated, but misleading, not only for what they say but mostly for what they don’t say.

In truth, no WMD stockpiles were found in Iraq. Some WMD chemical weapons were found, but they appear to have been remnants, not war reserve stockpiles. And evidence of active WMD biolological programs were uncovered, though no agents.

What isn’t mentioned is that the search for WMD answered only a few questions but raised new ones. Journalists, who are paid to be inquisitive, are anything but, and are completely satisfied with the few simple facts but aren’t curious about the uncomfortable gaps between what is known and what isn’t known.

We do know that Saddam had WMD, because he used them during the Iran-Iraq war and against the Kurds after the first Gulf War. What we don’t know is what happened to them. So of the four possibilities (they never existed, they were destroyed, they were hidden, they were moved), we can only rule out the first one.

Of the three remaining possibilities, the least likely is that the WMD were destroyed. Why? Because we could find no evidence of this either. Even if no records were kept, the physical evidence would be difficult to conceal. UN weapons inspectors were denied access to strategic areas, preventing them from finding evidence of either the existence or the destruction of WMD, so it would be foolish and illogical to assume that the weapons had been destroyed. 

So we are left with knowing that the WMD were either hidden or moved. Is no one worried? 

Actually, there is a fifth possibility. I’ll leave it to readers to come up with it.